Peak Civilization

(a recent article at CNN has got me all depressed)

A few years ago the drumbeat of "peak oil" picked up. Now, it seems to be mostly taken as a given. With the recent Japanese nuclear disaster (among other things), I can't help but think we have reached "peak civilization".

Early science fiction (1900, up to the 60's, even parts of the 70's and 80's) was decidedly optimistic (although not entirely). Mankind was seen as making use of greater and greater stores of energy, and going far. Stories assumed galactic civilization (some took place after many cycles of rise and fall of galactic empires).

At some point, something changed. Perhaps it was the nuclear accidents of the 70's and 80's, or the failure of fusion power. The failure of the space program (which we now see the culmination of, in the last shuttle flights - which will end the American manned space program). Science had promised us the stars, and failed to deliver.

Now, the spectre of global warming is pushing back against greater carbon based energy production. The Fukushima disaster will likely hinder, if not stop nuclear production. Green sources are notoriously inefficient, in terms of land use and construction overhead - they might replace our current production, but growth will be limited.

Science fiction has picked up on this ennui (I don't think it has caused it). Stories of galactic empire are few and far between (John Scalzi is the only current writer I know). Most stories tell of introspective and decadent remnants of humanity, living in dirt (at least, metaphysically, if not physically).

Much of our economy is based on an assumption of growth. It's unclear how we can adapt (we see this in the repeated "bubble" growth and pop cycles). Even population growth is leveling off.

Asimov wrote about computers stretching underneath the whole world (plantary AC). Now, we strive to make computers smaller and less powerful.

It seems we are destined to simply fizzle out. Staring at our belly buttons until the lights go out.

Edge of Battle

"Edge of Battle" (Dale Brown)(audio) - This one was bizarre. I don't know if his editor came to him and said "You're scenarios are too believable, it's scaring people". Here we have a group of Mexicans who believe the western US belongs to them. Then they engineer border skirmishes and steal nuclear weapons (not sure what they want the nukes for, they get blown up (reeeaal goood) before we can find out).

Why? To force the US to implement a guest worker program.

The book turns all cheery 1984 at the end too; with the Mexican and American presidents gulping down nano-tracking pills and smiling for the camera (only people with something to hide avoid swallowing nano-tracking pills!).